Could 145,000 Autistic Australians Lose Access to the NDIS? What the Proposed 2026 Reforms Mean
Quick Answer: Government estimates suggest that around 144,600 autistic Australians currently receiving autism-related NDIS supports could leave the scheme by 2031 under proposed reforms. This is a projection, not a confirmed outcome for every participant. The proposed reforms would place greater emphasis on functional capacity and everyday support needs rather than diagnosis alone. Participants should continue using their approved supports and keep reports and assessments up to date while reforms are being developed.
Introduction
Recent government estimates have sparked widespread discussion within the disability community after indicating that approximately 144,600 Australians receiving autism-related NDIS supports could leave the scheme by 2031 under proposed reforms.
For many autistic participants, parents and carers, this news has created understandable concern.
However, it’s important to understand that these figures are projections based on proposed reforms. They do not mean that every autistic participant included in the estimate will lose access to the NDIS.
So, what is actually changing, who could be affected, and what should participants do now?
This guide explains the proposed reforms in plain language and outlines practical steps participants and families can take while more details continue to emerge.
What Has the Government Proposed?
The Australian Government is working on reforms to create what it describes as a more consistent and sustainable NDIS.
One of the key proposals is a stronger focus on a participant’s functional capacity—that is, how their disability affects everyday life—rather than relying primarily on diagnosis when determining eligibility and supports.
The government estimates that, if these reforms are implemented as proposed, approximately 144,600 people receiving autism-related NDIS supports could leave the scheme by 2031.
It’s important to remember that this is a projection, not a list of participants who will definitely lose access.
Why Is Functional Capacity Becoming More Important?
Under the proposed reforms, the NDIA intends to place greater emphasis on how a person’s disability affects their ability to carry out daily activities.
Examples include:
- Personal care
- Communication
- Learning
- Social interaction
- Mobility
- Daily routines
- Community participation
- Independent living skills
This means that evidence explaining how autism affects everyday functioning may become increasingly important.
What About Children With Autism?
The proposed reforms also include a new early supports pathway known as the Thriving Kids program.
Under current proposals:
- Children aged 8 years and under with autism or developmental delay who have low to moderate support needs may receive assistance through the Thriving Kids program instead of becoming NDIS participants.
The intention is to provide earlier supports outside the NDIS for some children.
Will Children With Higher Support Needs Still Be Eligible?
According to current government information, children with permanent and significant disabilities, including those with higher support needs, are expected to remain eligible under the usual NDIS access requirements.
Eligibility decisions will continue to depend on each child’s individual circumstances and the final form of the reforms.
Should Current Participants Be Worried?
At this stage, participants should not panic or stop using the supports included in their approved NDIS plan.
The reforms are still developing, and there is no automatic change to an individual’s plan simply because these projections have been published.
If you are an NDIS participant, continue to:
- Use your approved supports
- Attend scheduled reviews
- Keep reports current
- Maintain communication with your healthcare professionals and service providers
What Should Participants Do Now?
Although nothing changes immediately for most participants, this is a good opportunity to prepare for future reviews.
Practical Steps
✔ Keep medical reports up to date
✔ Obtain current therapy reports where appropriate
✔ Keep Functional Capacity Assessments current if relevant
✔ Record how your disability affects everyday life
✔ Document changes in your support needs
✔ Keep your NDIS goals up to date
Good evidence helps provide a clear picture of your current circumstances.
Why Everyday Evidence Matters
Recent NDIS reforms consistently point towards a greater focus on:
- Functional capacity
- Daily support needs
- Independence
- Participant outcomes
Instead of focusing only on diagnosis, participants should be able to explain how their disability affects everyday activities such as:
- Personal care
- Household tasks
- Community participation
- Communication
- Travel
- Learning new skills
This information may become increasingly important in future planning discussions.
How Sydney Care Support Supports Autistic Participants
At Sydney Care Support, we understand that news about NDIS reforms can feel overwhelming for participants and families.
We continue to support autistic participants across Sydney with practical, person-centred services that promote independence, confidence and participation.
Our services include:
- Daily Living Support
- Personal Care
- Domestic Assistance
- Meal Preparation
- Community Participation
- Transport Assistance
- Life Skills Development
We will continue monitoring official NDIS announcements and sharing reliable updates as more information becomes available.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will 145,000 autistic Australians definitely lose the NDIS?
No. The figure is a government projection based on proposed reforms. It is not confirmation that every participant included in the estimate will lose access.
Is autism being removed from the NDIS?
No. The proposed reforms focus on functional capacity and support needs rather than diagnosis alone. Eligibility will continue to depend on individual circumstances and the final reforms.
What is the Thriving Kids program?
The proposed Thriving Kids program is intended to provide early supports for some children aged 8 years and under with developmental delay or autism and lower support needs, outside the NDIS.
Should I stop using my current NDIS supports?
No. Participants should continue using the supports included in their approved plan unless advised otherwise by the NDIA.
Final Thoughts
The proposed NDIS reforms have understandably raised questions for many autistic participants and their families.
While government estimates suggest that a significant number of participants could leave the NDIS by 2031 under the proposed reforms, these figures are projections—not confirmed outcomes for individual participants.
The reforms are still developing, and many implementation details are yet to be finalised.
For now, the best approach is to stay informed, continue using your approved supports, keep your reports up to date, and focus on documenting how your disability affects your everyday life.
Sydney Care Support will continue monitoring official announcements and sharing accurate information as reforms progress.
Disclaimer: This article provides general information only and should not be considered legal, medical or personalised NDIS advice. Always refer to official NDIA information or seek professional advice about your individual circumstances.
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